Tears: Real or Imaginary

If you've seen the pictures and video of the funeral for Kim Jong-Il, you've probably asked yourself the same question that a lot of people have....ARE THOSE TEARS AND WAILING REAL OR FAKED????

The answer is probably a little bit of both.  Some things to keep in mind:

1) Any pictures or video you see are released SOLELY by the government of North Korea.  There are no independent AP videographers, no twitter or facebook mobile phone cams, no tourists taking pics and emailing them out (on a sidenote, I tried to get a visa to go and witness the funeral for myself and it was not possible).  And, these pics and videos are meticulously edited before release to the outside world (see this site as an example:  Photo from Kim Funeral )  So while you are seeing lots of crying, you are also only seeing what they want you to see.

2)  It is also quite likely that the tears are rehearsed and while not "forced", it is certainly in the best interests of the people at the funeral to show their tears and to be seen "acting appropriately" as they were instructed by local officials during the announcement of the funeral details.  In addition to goverment agents every where (personal experience with this during my trip there and even on my return to Malaysia), there are also government appointed monitors who watch their neighbors.  These people have day to day duties of organizing local clean ups and other local activities, but they are also responsible for reporting neighbors who seem to be acting in an anti-revolutionary manner or who may seem suspicious.

3) And finally, there is a simple numbers game.  The population of North Korea is around 24 million people.  It is estimated that there are around 3 million people in Pyongyang.  It is also estimated that there are 4 million members of the Workers Party of Korea (the ruling communist party) in the entire country.  Pyongyang is generally reserved for thos people of excellent songbun (family background), which means that the majority of the 4 million party members live in Pyongyang.  And those who arent party members are still family member of the party members or at least of some excellent songbun and therefore lead a priviledged life which is in some part thanks to the Kim dynasty.  It was estimated that around 200,000 people lined the streets for the funeral (many fromt he military who also benefit greatly from the Kim leadership) and that another 100,000 turned out for Thursday's memorial service in Kim Il Sung square.  100,000 to 200,000 people is actually a relatively small percentage of even just the KWP membership and/or the Pyongyang population.  Therefore, it is entirely believable that you could find that many people from that subsection of the population who are genuinely distraught by the death of Dear Leader.


It is also worth remembering that evertything is controlled by the party.  This can very easily include movements of the people.  One cant not leave your city or enter another city without permission from the government.  It is likely that during such an important event to the government as this funeral that even movement within the city was highly restricted.  ALL North Koreans are meticulously classified by the party into 51 different groups which are subcategories of three classes which, in general terms, are: "good", "uncertain" and "hostile".  We can be fairly certain that only the best of the "good" class were allowed anywhere near the funeral procession or the cameras.

Real or imaginary tears?!?!?!  Like everything in DPRK, it's not really clear!

Death of Kim-What Now?

So, what happens now?

The world was stunned today by the seemingly sudden death of Kim Jong Il.  After suffering a stroke and noticeably deteriorating health in 2008, he had appeared much stronger and healthier in 2011 and had reportedly been keep quite a vigorous schedule.   He apparently died from a heart attack, but there will be conspiracy theorists who postulate some other method of his demise!

But, in the hermit kingdom, it may never be known how he actually died.  The important issue now becomes what does a post Kim DPRK look like?  His youngest son, believed to be 26-28 years old has been anointed as his successor.  However, this is a fairly recent development and in this Confucian society, youth is difficult to overcome when trying to earn the respect of your followers. 

By comparison, the ascension of Kim Jong Il from his father was meticulously planned and choreographed over multiple decades while Jong Un’s rapid ascension has taken only a few years.  By the time Kim Jong Il took over for his father, his deification through official state media was well under way and his image well defined.  On the contrary, on my visit to North Korea this summer, there was almost no official imagery of Kim Jong Un.  It’s safe to say that the transition has been rushed and is not complete, which could lead to a number of different scenarios in the weeks and years to come. Since little is truly known about the inner working of the DPRK’s ruling elite, anything is possible.  Here, I’ll take a look at a few that I see as distinct possibilities.

1)       Military confrontation

There are a few things at work here that make this a very strong possibility and one I am sure that keeps S. Korean and Japanese leaders awake at night.

As the transition has been rushed and it seems that Jong Un is either not ready to lead or is not fully supported, it could be in his interest to start a military conflict to both take the attention off of his lack of experience and also to give him an opportunity to “solve a crisis”.  It would be entirely following North Korean modus operandi to attack the south, then claim to their people that the evil south and their capitalist American puppet masters had attacked them, but the valiant young General Jong Un repelled the foreigners and saved the day.  This projects strength, leadership and proper anti-imperialist credentials. 

The North Korean propagandists have seized already on the fact that Kim Jong Un looks and acts like his grandfather and the father of the nation, Kim Il Sung.  What better way to further propagate this myth than with remake of what the senior Kim did during the cold war?  And if he could do it during the 100 year anniversary year of Kim Il Sung’s birth?  The propagandists couldn’t dream it up any better themselves!

Additionally, Kim Jong Un’s official position is actually as a General in the army.  The army is really the Kim’s main power base as evidence by the songun (military first) policy instituted by Kim Jong Il.  One way of keeping the army on your side and supporting the regime is to constantly give them an enemy and resources and a raison d’etre.  “Repelling” the evil capitalist forces gives the army something to do, feeds them more resources and prevents them from having an opportunity to scheme against you.

Remember too, that the longer things go on with no news from North Korea, the more the international community starts to suspect that no one is in charge or there is a power struggle.  It is in Kim Jong Un's interest to do SOMETHING that shows he is now in charge and discourages anyone else (both internally or externally) from doing something to destabilize his new regime.

2)      Government by committee until Jong Un is ready

Another possibility is that Kim Jong Un will be pushed forward as the face of the country while in reality a group of Kim loyalists is really running things and continuing to groom Jong Un for his actual takeover of power.  The fact that the transition to Kim Jong Un has gotten this far prior to Il Sung’s death shows that there was some level of approval of him already in the government.

Of course, if this is what happens, the outside world will never know about it.  Information does not flow freely out of North Korea and little is known (at least publicly) about how the machine runs in DPRK.

3)      Overthrow of the Kim dynasty

Again, playing on the fact that Kim Jong Un is young and presumably in danger of not being accepted either by the people, the army, the workers party or the cabinet, it could be seen that these groups conspire against him. 

In 2010, North Korea instituted a currency reform in order to control illegal markets, control soaring inflation and smoke out Jong Un’s detractors.  The currency reform was hugely unpopular and completely wiped out North Korean’s saving instantly.  It is believed that Kim Jong Un was a major force behind this and it could potentially be one more chink in his armor that people sieze upon to discredit his leadership credentials.

4)      Smooth transition

It is believed that the North Korean people long for the “good ol’ days” of Kim Il Sung when times were relatively good.  The 90’s and early 2000’s were miserable times for the people of North Korea.  Famine, sanctions, failed currency reforms, etc have allegedly dampened the people’s enthusiasm for the Kim Jong Il regime. 

Following along this thinking and the desire of the propagandists to push the idea that Kim Jong Un is somehow a “reincarnation” of Kim Il Sung, one can see how this is pushed further forward in an effort to somehow show the good days are coming back. Of course, this is a delicate dance to promote the re-coming of the good ol' days, while not disparaging the Kim Jong Il regime.

The North has already been stockpiling food and luxury goods in anticipation of the 100^th birthday celebrations of Kim Il Sung.  This could also be used to placate the people in the name of Kim Jong Un now in an effort to boost his standing among the people.

5)      Total Chaos

It could be quite likely that Kim will enjoy the support of the army while losing the support of the Korean Works Party or cabinet (or some combination of these institutions).  In this case, it could lead to massive infighting, backstabbing and total chaos and destabilization.  This is indeed a dangerous situation as North Korea is a nuclear armed nation and is practically within spitting distance of Seoul, the capital of South Korea, which happens to be Asia's fourth largest economy. 

One thing to keep in mind is my strongly held opinion that in my lifetime, change will not happen in North Korea as a result of popular uprising.  Travel is limited.  Information sharing is primitive.   Only elites live in Pyongyang.  The poor farmers and countrysiders who have the biggest complaints are underfed and would be no match for the military (not too mention they aren’t even allowed into Pyongyang without a pass).  The military at this point has no reason to stand in unity with the people.  In other words, if chaos comes, it comes solely from the within the government institutions that we know so little about.

Conclusion:

Of course, as in any time in attempting to understand the DPRK, there are many wild cards which can not be accounted for and make it difficult, if not impossible, to predict the outcome.  How will the Chinese behave towards the succession?  Who are the other major power players in the North Korean government?  How will the army/KWP/cabinet react in the immediate aftermath? 

Whatever happens, it will be most interesting to watch over the next few days, weeks, months and years.  There is declining appetite for reunification in the south and little hope for the people of North Korea towards a brighter future.  One thing is certain though, the sudden death of Kim Jong Il is probably their best hope at change.  Had Jong Il been able to complete the grooming and purging process for Jong Un, there would have been little hope for anything other than more of the same Stalinist, repressive government.

#1: Background Information

This is a blog about my recent trip to North Korea, aka The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).  This is the "bad" Korea (axis of evil) that you hear about in the news and despite it's name, it is neither a democracy or a republic.  The "good" Korea is South Korea which is officially known as The Republic of Korea and while they are not a perfect country and have some issues, they are a democracy with clean and free elections.

I have always had a great interest in North Korea and their reclusive leaders.  In fact, it's probably actually a borderline unhealthy obsession!!!  I also am typically a bit of a skeptic when it comes to trusting what I hear about other countries from the media and the government.  For these reasons, I decided to satisfy my curiosity and go see North Korea for myself.  I spent 7 full days in the country and filled an entire notebook of stories, observations and thoughts.  I have decided to post this blog in an effort to both inform my friends about my trip (without having to tell the same stories 100 times), while also sharing a personal viewpoint on this secretive nation to whoever else stumbles across this blog.

It was quite a big decision to actually start posting this blog and one I've not entered into lightly.  There are two reasons for this:

1-  I would actually like to go back someday.  If it were discovered that I posted this, it is very possible that I might be considered a journalist and not be granted a visa (especially since I may share some negative impressions on this site)

2-  Safety.  Not my own safety, but the safety of my guides while I was there.  When you travel to North Korea, you are only allowed to travel with a tour group.  In addition to the tour group leader, the North Korean government also provides a number of "guides" to accompany you in country (more on these guys later).  Essentially the guides are there to make sure you don't take pictures of negative things, don't speak to locals and spew the propaganda at you about how wonderful it is.  If it were know who my guides were, it is again quite possible that THEY and their families could be punished for my negative views.

So, that's the brief background of me and why/how I am doing this.  I'm trying to keep it all anonymous, but will open a private email account at some point to answer questions as well.

Next up will be a brief history lesson on DPRK which is essential to be able to understand the current situation on the Korean peninsula.

#2: Historical Background

In order to understand the current situation in North/South Korea, it's important to have a basic understanding of its recent history.  I'll keep it short, but here are the basics:

1910:  Japanese colonize Korea and commit atrocities on the Korean population throughout their occupation (north and south were one country) and thus begins an intense hatred of the Japanese which continues to this day

1932:  Kim Il Sung joins the resistance against Japanese occupation

1945:  WWII ends.  This is where is starts to get interesting.  As most of the world is taught, the Allies, led by the Americans in the Pacific defeated the Japanese (Soviet Union joined the Pacific War just as it was ending).  However, North Koreans are taught that Kim Il Sung himself defeated the Japanese.  And here the logic on their part seems to take a hit.  They acknowledge happily that the USA dropped an atomic bomb (and are therefore evil), but that that did not defeat the Japanese.  They can name no battles where Kim defeated the Japanese.  Only that he alone expelled them from the Korean peninsula

1945ish:  As the cold war begins, the Korean peninsula is split into North and South along the 38th parallel with the North aligned with communist Soviet Union/China under Stalin and Mao and the South aligned with the USA/UN.  Kim Il Sung becomes the founding father of DPRK.  Kim founds the country based on the Juche idea which is a philosophy of "self reliance".

1950:  North Korea attacks South Korea and thus begins the Korean War.  This is another important thing to understand.  Kim Il Sung asked Soviet permission to attack the South.  Stalin was not pleased about it and gave his permission with the understanding that if they attacked, they would do so without material Soviet support (other than some Soviet MIG's flown by Soviet pilots dressed in N. Korean uniforms).  But here again is where written history is altered in N. Korea.  According to N. Korean history, the Americans actually started the war by attacking them first.  At the time, the Soviet Union also went along with this story.  However, after the fall of the Soviet Union and the release of KGB documents from this time, it was confirmed that Kim actually started the war with Soviet approval.  Because of this belief in North Korea, while the rest of the world calls it the "Korean War", the North Koreans refer it to the "Victorious Fatherland Liberation War"

1950-1953:  Violently bloody Korean War is fought essentially between USA/S. Korea and the N. Koreans/Chinese/Soviets.

1953:  Armistice is signed to temporarily halt the Korean War until a full peace treaty can be negotiated.  To this day, no peace treaty has been signed meaning technically both sides are still at war.  Also interesting is the fact that the armistice was signed by three parties:  Chinese, N. Korean and US led United Nations.  S. Korea, in a significant mistake, did NOT sign the peace treaty.  To this day, the fact that they did not sign it is all the proof the N. Koreans need that S. Korea is actually just a puppet of the USA and therefore not to be trusted.  DMZ is established and quickly becomes the most heavily armed and militarized border in the world

1950's-80's:  N. Korea outpaces S. Korea in economic growth during the early years of this period.  However, over time, the democratic and capitalistic South eventually becomes the world's 11th largest economy while the North, with its planned and dictated economy and production begins to depend more and more on communist Soviet Union to prop up their economy.

1976:  Ax Murder Incident in DMZ occurs and war almost breaks out again

1989:  Soviet Union collapses and N. Korea loses it's largest benefactor.  As a result, their economy begins to implode.

1990's:  Famine strikes N. Korea and the government announces the "Let's Eat Two Meals a Day" campaign in an effort to preserve food.

1994:  Kim Il Sung dies.  He is named Eternal President for Life and bronze statues of him are mounted in every city in the nation to represent his eternal presence.  His son, Kim Jong Il takes over and introduces his "songun" policy which means "military first" and allocates all resources first to the military before to the general population

1995:  Massive flooding hits North Korea and wipes out about 30% of the countries grain supplies.  It is estimated that during the famine and floods of the 90's, anywhere between 600,000 and 2,000,000 North Koreans die of starvation

2002:  President Bush labels N. Korea as part of the Axis of Evil

2006:  N. Korea successfully tests its first nuclear bomb

2009:  N. Korea successfully tests another nuclear bomb

2010:  N. Korea sinks the Cheonan S. Korean warship but refuses to take responsibility.  Also in 2010, N. Korea shells the S. Korean island of Yeonpyeong

As of now all talks, joint economic efforts and travel between N. and S. Korea are suspended until N. Korea meets Western demands of giving up its nuclear program and accepting responsibility for the sinking of the Cheonan.

#3: Life

As some further background, here is a summary of some facts of life and other interesting (to me anyways) points that I picked up during my talks with our guides.  Some of these will be discussed in more detail in later posts.  One thing you find right away in N. Korea though is that nothing is ever as it seems and you can ask 3 people the same direct, seemingly simple question and get 3 drastically different answers.  The below statements represent my best understanding of things given this fact:

-The capital of N. Korea is Pyongyang

-There are approximately 600,000 mobile phones in N. Korea (almost all in Pyongyang presumably).  The network was setup by an Egyptian company and phones are able to make and receive calls on within N. Korea.  No calling out or being able to call in from other countries.

-The government provides a monthly rice ration based on the number of people in your household.  On public holidays and special occasions, the government may also provide additional rations of veggies, meat or liquor.  This is all done via a coupon system where the coupons can then be redeemed at your district market.

-Any other food you wish to by can be bought by cash at the local government owned market.  Theoretically, private markets selling other goods do not exist as the government is able to provide the people with all their needs.  This however is not true at all.  But they like to promote this to the outside world and thus photos of small private markets (usually a woman on the street selling things out of a plastic box) are strictly forbidden.

-Housing is provided by the government.  In the capital city of Pyongyang, once you are married you and your new spouse decide if you want to move into your own place or if you wish to live with your husbands family.  Apartments are then assigned by the government based on your age, size of family and of course political standing.  Tenants pay personally for electricity.

-It is not required to be a communist party member, but is considered a great honor and greatly increases your standing in the community and your prospects for success.  It is unclear how you join.  I was told anyone can join (by a well connected party member) and I was also told only the elite family members can join (by an un-connected, non-party member).

-N. Koreans are generally required to wear a red lapel pin of Kim Il Sung over their hearts at all times (unless working in a factory of a field).  Kim Il Sung is literally taught to be a god.  Pins are given to all children when they turn 14 and come in different shapes (circle, flag shape, rectangle)

-Every living room, office, school room, etc is required to have a picture of both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il hanging up.  These must be cleaned daily by a special cloth that is not allowed to clean anything else so as to keep it from spoiling the Kim pics.

-Men serve a compulsory 3 year military service beginning at age 17.  Women can join if they wish.

-Once your military service is complete, you either go to University or to work in the factories/fields based on government administered testing.  The government "suggests" which factory or field you will work at and if you decline, they will politely educate you as to why, for the good of the party, you should accept their suggestion.

-At some point, school children are given a competency exam which the government uses to decide what they will study and grow up to be.

-Our well connected party guide told me anyone is allowed to buy a car.  Local made car starts at about $20,000 USD.  You must pay in cash as there are no loans, putting this out of reach of 99.9% of N. Koreans.  However, I was told by another source that only elite government officials can have a car, which is given to them by the regime.  We saw every kind of car imaginable from Ford, Toyota, Mercedes, BMW, Chevy, etc, etc, etc.

-The normal fashion is fairly bland.  Cloth shoes, simple clothes.  Not many jeans.  A lot of mean wear the typical "Kim Suit" (see below).  You do occasionally see people wearing Adidas, etc.  Many of the guides will have some western clothes or even an iPod.  But these are not bought in N. Korea.  They are given as gifts from foreigners.

-Pyongyanites are not allowed to freely go out to the countryside and the countrysiders are not freely able to enter Pyongyang.  A special pass is needed to come and go from the city.  Every road in and out of the city has a guarded checkpoint where the passes are checked.  So in the future, when you hear of a N. Korean telling you that there are no starving people in N. Korea, chances are that he/she is from Pyongyang and really doesn't know!  There is no outside information other than what the government tells you.

-Each tourist hotel in Pyongyang (and you are only allowed to stay in certain hotels) has its own microbrewery and they make really good beers!

-There is not internet.  There is an intranet that is only information that censors deem appropriate.

-Since Kim Jong Il's recently alleged stroke, news reports no longer show video of him.  Only still pictures are shown as it is easier to control what is seen and how he is seen.