Death of Kim-What Now?

So, what happens now?

The world was stunned today by the seemingly sudden death of Kim Jong Il.  After suffering a stroke and noticeably deteriorating health in 2008, he had appeared much stronger and healthier in 2011 and had reportedly been keep quite a vigorous schedule.   He apparently died from a heart attack, but there will be conspiracy theorists who postulate some other method of his demise!

But, in the hermit kingdom, it may never be known how he actually died.  The important issue now becomes what does a post Kim DPRK look like?  His youngest son, believed to be 26-28 years old has been anointed as his successor.  However, this is a fairly recent development and in this Confucian society, youth is difficult to overcome when trying to earn the respect of your followers. 

By comparison, the ascension of Kim Jong Il from his father was meticulously planned and choreographed over multiple decades while Jong Un’s rapid ascension has taken only a few years.  By the time Kim Jong Il took over for his father, his deification through official state media was well under way and his image well defined.  On the contrary, on my visit to North Korea this summer, there was almost no official imagery of Kim Jong Un.  It’s safe to say that the transition has been rushed and is not complete, which could lead to a number of different scenarios in the weeks and years to come. Since little is truly known about the inner working of the DPRK’s ruling elite, anything is possible.  Here, I’ll take a look at a few that I see as distinct possibilities.

1)       Military confrontation

There are a few things at work here that make this a very strong possibility and one I am sure that keeps S. Korean and Japanese leaders awake at night.

As the transition has been rushed and it seems that Jong Un is either not ready to lead or is not fully supported, it could be in his interest to start a military conflict to both take the attention off of his lack of experience and also to give him an opportunity to “solve a crisis”.  It would be entirely following North Korean modus operandi to attack the south, then claim to their people that the evil south and their capitalist American puppet masters had attacked them, but the valiant young General Jong Un repelled the foreigners and saved the day.  This projects strength, leadership and proper anti-imperialist credentials. 

The North Korean propagandists have seized already on the fact that Kim Jong Un looks and acts like his grandfather and the father of the nation, Kim Il Sung.  What better way to further propagate this myth than with remake of what the senior Kim did during the cold war?  And if he could do it during the 100 year anniversary year of Kim Il Sung’s birth?  The propagandists couldn’t dream it up any better themselves!

Additionally, Kim Jong Un’s official position is actually as a General in the army.  The army is really the Kim’s main power base as evidence by the songun (military first) policy instituted by Kim Jong Il.  One way of keeping the army on your side and supporting the regime is to constantly give them an enemy and resources and a raison d’etre.  “Repelling” the evil capitalist forces gives the army something to do, feeds them more resources and prevents them from having an opportunity to scheme against you.

Remember too, that the longer things go on with no news from North Korea, the more the international community starts to suspect that no one is in charge or there is a power struggle.  It is in Kim Jong Un's interest to do SOMETHING that shows he is now in charge and discourages anyone else (both internally or externally) from doing something to destabilize his new regime.

2)      Government by committee until Jong Un is ready

Another possibility is that Kim Jong Un will be pushed forward as the face of the country while in reality a group of Kim loyalists is really running things and continuing to groom Jong Un for his actual takeover of power.  The fact that the transition to Kim Jong Un has gotten this far prior to Il Sung’s death shows that there was some level of approval of him already in the government.

Of course, if this is what happens, the outside world will never know about it.  Information does not flow freely out of North Korea and little is known (at least publicly) about how the machine runs in DPRK.

3)      Overthrow of the Kim dynasty

Again, playing on the fact that Kim Jong Un is young and presumably in danger of not being accepted either by the people, the army, the workers party or the cabinet, it could be seen that these groups conspire against him. 

In 2010, North Korea instituted a currency reform in order to control illegal markets, control soaring inflation and smoke out Jong Un’s detractors.  The currency reform was hugely unpopular and completely wiped out North Korean’s saving instantly.  It is believed that Kim Jong Un was a major force behind this and it could potentially be one more chink in his armor that people sieze upon to discredit his leadership credentials.

4)      Smooth transition

It is believed that the North Korean people long for the “good ol’ days” of Kim Il Sung when times were relatively good.  The 90’s and early 2000’s were miserable times for the people of North Korea.  Famine, sanctions, failed currency reforms, etc have allegedly dampened the people’s enthusiasm for the Kim Jong Il regime. 

Following along this thinking and the desire of the propagandists to push the idea that Kim Jong Un is somehow a “reincarnation” of Kim Il Sung, one can see how this is pushed further forward in an effort to somehow show the good days are coming back. Of course, this is a delicate dance to promote the re-coming of the good ol' days, while not disparaging the Kim Jong Il regime.

The North has already been stockpiling food and luxury goods in anticipation of the 100^th birthday celebrations of Kim Il Sung.  This could also be used to placate the people in the name of Kim Jong Un now in an effort to boost his standing among the people.

5)      Total Chaos

It could be quite likely that Kim will enjoy the support of the army while losing the support of the Korean Works Party or cabinet (or some combination of these institutions).  In this case, it could lead to massive infighting, backstabbing and total chaos and destabilization.  This is indeed a dangerous situation as North Korea is a nuclear armed nation and is practically within spitting distance of Seoul, the capital of South Korea, which happens to be Asia's fourth largest economy. 

One thing to keep in mind is my strongly held opinion that in my lifetime, change will not happen in North Korea as a result of popular uprising.  Travel is limited.  Information sharing is primitive.   Only elites live in Pyongyang.  The poor farmers and countrysiders who have the biggest complaints are underfed and would be no match for the military (not too mention they aren’t even allowed into Pyongyang without a pass).  The military at this point has no reason to stand in unity with the people.  In other words, if chaos comes, it comes solely from the within the government institutions that we know so little about.

Conclusion:

Of course, as in any time in attempting to understand the DPRK, there are many wild cards which can not be accounted for and make it difficult, if not impossible, to predict the outcome.  How will the Chinese behave towards the succession?  Who are the other major power players in the North Korean government?  How will the army/KWP/cabinet react in the immediate aftermath? 

Whatever happens, it will be most interesting to watch over the next few days, weeks, months and years.  There is declining appetite for reunification in the south and little hope for the people of North Korea towards a brighter future.  One thing is certain though, the sudden death of Kim Jong Il is probably their best hope at change.  Had Jong Il been able to complete the grooming and purging process for Jong Un, there would have been little hope for anything other than more of the same Stalinist, repressive government.